Walk-forward strategy performance
Every strategy was re-run draw by draw across the 2,502 archive drawings (2023-04-01 → 2026-09-02) using only prior data — no lookahead. Multi-Year All-Time Baseline Payout table at $0.25 per family per drawing: distinct $37.50 / double $75.00 / triple $225.00 / .
What "plays" means. One play = one $0.25 bet on one boxed family for one drawing.
Total plays = families played per drawing × drawings — e.g. a strategy that plays
8 families every drawing across
2,502 drawings accumulates
16,663 plays.
Every single play is settled against an actual archived drawing, and every hit is listed with its date in each
strategy's detail below — nothing here is estimated or modeled.
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| Strategy | Families/draw | Drawings | Total plays | Hits | Hit rate | Cost | Gross | Net | ROI | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cici's Rules Engine | 7.8 | 2,124 | 16,663 | 84 | 0.50% | $4,165.75 | $3,750 | $-415.75 | -10.0% | $-605.25 |
| Followed-By (empirical top 5) | 5.0 | 1,732 | 8,656 | 38 | 0.44% | $2,164 | $1,650 | $-514 | -23.8% | $-613.75 |
| Hot Families (top 10) | 10.0 | 2,502 | 25,020 | 147 | 0.59% | $6,255 | $5,512.5 | $-742.5 | -11.9% | $-775 |
| Cold/Due Families (bottom 10) | 10.0 | 2,502 | 25,020 | 64 | 0.26% | $6,255 | $6,037.5 | $-217.5 | -3.5% | $-997.5 |
| Hot doubles (top 18) | 18.0 | 2,502 | 45,036 | 148 | 0.33% | $11,259 | $11,100 | $-159 | -1.4% | $-1,170 |
| Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation) | 10.0 | 2,502 | 25,020 | 124 | 0.50% | $6,255 | $5,812.5 | $-442.5 | -7.1% | $-875 |
| Carryover Overdue (top 10) | 10.0 | 2,502 | 25,020 | 124 | 0.50% | $6,255 | $5,962.5 | $-292.5 | -4.7% | $-500 |
| Carryover Mixed-Parity Momentum (top 10) | 10.0 | 2,412 | 24,120 | 125 | 0.52% | $6,030 | $4,800 | $-1,230 | -20.4% | $-1,242.5 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 1y window) | 18.0 | 2,502 | 45,036 | 165 | 0.37% | $11,259 | $11,212.5 | $-46.5 | -0.4% | $-1,194 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 2y window) | 18.0 | 2,502 | 45,036 | 167 | 0.37% | $11,259 | $11,100 | $-159 | -1.4% | $-1,303.5 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 90d window) | 10.0 | 2,502 | 25,020 | 80 | 0.32% | $6,255 | $6,112.5 | $-142.5 | -2.3% | $-1,057.5 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 180d window) | 10.0 | 2,502 | 25,020 | 73 | 0.29% | $6,255 | $5,512.5 | $-742.5 | -11.9% | $-775 |
| Calendar Year Top-5 | 5.0 | 2,502 | 12,510 | 80 | 0.64% | $3,127.5 | $3,000 | $-127.5 | -4.1% | $-275 |
| Baseline: All 252 Distinct Boxes | 120.0 | 2,502 | 300,240 | 1,779 | 0.59% | $75,060 | $66,712.5 | $-8,347.5 | -11.1% | $-8,377.5 |
| Consensus Panel | 7.0 | 2,502 | 17,398 | 92 | 0.53% | $4,349.5 | $4,500 | $150.5 | 3.5% | $-333.5 |
| Pure Matches: 10 Triples | 10.0 | 2,682 | 26,820 | 27 | 1.01% | $6,705 | $6,075 | $-630 | -9.4% | $-155 |
Window summary.
1 of 16 strategies finished positive in this window.
· Highest Capital ROI: Consensus Panel (+3.5% ROI, net +$150.50)
Top Net Dollars: Consensus Panel +$150.50 · Profit Persisters (top 18, 1y window) -$46.50 · Calendar Year Top-5 -$127.50
Top Net Dollars: Consensus Panel +$150.50 · Profit Persisters (top 18, 1y window) -$46.50 · Calendar Year Top-5 -$127.50
Performance matrix — net by trailing window (all strategies)
Each cell is a strategy's net over the trailing calendar window, from the full-archive run — green means the strategy made money in that window, red means it lost. The last column counts how many of the last 12 active months were profitable.
| Strategy | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | All time | Positive months (12) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus Panel | -$8 | -$71 | -$55 | -$265 | +$46 | +$461 | +$151 | 4/12 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 1y window) | -$18 | -$201 | -$158 | -$821 | -$1,181 | -$87 | -$47 | 2/12 |
| Calendar Year Top-5 | -$5 | -$48 | -$163 | -$93 | -$143 | -$120 | -$128 | 5/12 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 90d window) | -$10 | +$55 | -$175 | -$410 | -$810 | +$210 | -$143 | 2/12 |
| Hot doubles (top 18) | -$18 | +$24 | +$30 | -$333 | -$693 | -$312 | -$159 | 5/12 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 2y window) | -$18 | -$351 | -$495 | -$671 | -$1,106 | -$200 | -$159 | 3/12 |
| Cold/Due Families (bottom 10) | -$10 | -$170 | -$175 | -$635 | -$998 | -$165 | -$218 | 3/12 |
| Carryover Overdue (top 10) | -$10 | -$133 | -$63 | -$335 | +$53 | -$128 | -$293 | 4/12 |
| Cici's Rules Engine | -$6 | -$31 | -$8 | +$163 | +$37 | -$243 | -$416 | 7/12 |
| Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation) | -$10 | -$58 | -$175 | -$635 | -$735 | -$353 | -$443 | 2/12 |
| Followed-By (empirical top 5) | -$5 | -$31 | -$53 | -$211 | -$480 | -$453 | -$514 | 5/12 |
| Pure Matches: 10 Triples | — | — | — | — | — | — | -$630 | 0/0 |
| Hot Families (top 10) | -$10 | -$208 | -$288 | -$148 | -$360 | -$653 | -$743 | 5/12 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 180d window) | -$10 | -$170 | -$175 | -$73 | -$698 | -$503 | -$743 | 3/12 |
| Carryover Mixed-Parity Momentum (top 10) | -$10 | -$20 | -$100 | -$335 | -$960 | -$840 | -$1,230 | 4/12 |
| Baseline: All 252 Distinct Boxes | +$30 | -$165 | -$638 | -$1,845 | -$4,020 | -$7,193 | -$8,348 | 1/12 |