Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 1)
Dynamic Walk-Forward18 total plays0.3 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
Play Sizing: Averages 0.3 boxed families per drawing.
Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.07 (0.3 × $0.25).
Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/10/2026
⚡ ACTIVE HOLD CYCLE
Hold Draw 3 of 10
⚡ ACTIVE STRIKE (HOLD 3/10) · $0.50 STAKE (VELOCITY ATTACK)
Hold Progress Rail: Option A · Velocity Front-Loaded(Draw 3 / 10)
Wave Sizing & Trough Protection:$0.50 Wave 1 / $0.00 Dead Zone (Draws 4–6)
Draw 10 Zero Exposure Mandate:🛑 $0.00 Sit Out on Step 10 (Terminal Hard-Stop)
📊 Key performance metrics (1 month walk-forward)
Multi-Year Consistency Window
Evaluated across 62 drawings
(2026-08-10 → 2026-09-09).
Multi-year consistency benchmark: +$871 (138.5% ROI across 2,516 all-time draws).
Net Profit-$4.5
Return on Investment-100.0%
Hit Rate0.00%
Max Drawdown-$-4.5
Active Drawings62
Total Plays Placed18
Total Winning Hits0
Gross Revenue$0
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
Total Staked (Cost)$4.5
Total Payout (Gross)$0
Net Profit / Loss-$4.5
Final Bankroll$495.5
Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-4.50. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-6.
🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check:Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
1M
3M
6M
1Y ★
2Y
3Y
All Time
Profitable Months
-$4.5
-100.0% ROI
-$35.5
-100.0% ROI
-$81
-100.0% ROI
-$172
-100.0% ROI
-$167
-47.1% ROI
+$212.5
39.5% ROI
+$871
138.5% ROI
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📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
