Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 48 total plays 0.8 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 0.8 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.20 (0.8 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/11/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1448 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 8, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (221 skips, z=+-0.64), ⚡ Mirror Echo (0937)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 6903) |
| 3399 | double/double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 6, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (18 skips), ⚡ Echo Pair (0937)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 6903) |
| 2456 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 8, Date Anchor 4, Shield Safe, Overdue (492 skips, z=+-1.16), ⚡ Mirror Echo (0937)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 6903) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 945 | -37.0% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 4 | 2 | 50.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.27% | 0.21% | -0.06% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $317.25 | +$138.75 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | +$0.00 | -$36.00 | -$36.00 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | 0.0% | -11.3% | -11.3% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 month walk-forward)
Evaluated across 61 drawings (2026-08-11 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: +$552 (29.3% ROI across 2,514 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$12
-100.0% ROI |
-$105
-100.0% ROI |
-$241.5
-100.0% ROI |
+$235.5
45.8% ROI |
+$63
5.9% ROI |
+$76.5
4.7% ROI |
+$552
29.3% ROI |
2 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $412.5 | $750 | +$337.5 | 2 | 81.8% |
| 2024 | $549 | $843.75 | +$294.75 | 3 | 53.7% |
| 2025 | $547.5 | $93.75 | -$453.75 | 1 | -82.9% |
| 2026 | $376.5 | $750 | +$373.5 | 2 | 99.2% |