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RB9 Math · Law of Large Numbers Deficit Hold (Top 1)

Dynamic Walk-Forward 2,150 total plays 1.0 families/draw

Mean-reversion hold: exploits root deficits predicted by the Law of Large Numbers (+3.93% All-Time ROI across 13,855 draws).

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Mean-reversion hold: exploits root deficits predicted by the Law of Large Numbers (+3.93% All-Time ROI across 13,855 draws).

Execution & Cost Profile

  • Play Sizing: Averages 1.0 boxed families per drawing.
  • Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.24 (1.0 × $0.25).
  • Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
  • Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/10/2026

⚡ ACTIVE HOLD CYCLE Hold Draw 10 of 10
🛑 10-DRAW CUT-OFF · $0.00 SIT OUT / DO NOT PLAY
Hold Progress Rail: Option A · Velocity Front-Loaded (Draw 10 / 10)
1 ✓ Past
2 ✓ Past
3 ✓ Past
4 ✓ Past
5 ✓ Past
6 ✓ Past
7 ✓ Past
8 ✓ Past
9 ✓ Past
10 🛑 SIT OUT
Trigger Drawing
#0937
Midday (2026-09-05)
Cumulative Stake Invested
$2.50
$0.25/draw × 10 draws
Payout if Dropped Now
$187.50 (Double Prize)
Stops immediately on drop
Net Profit if Dropped Now
+$185.00
Gross payout minus cumulative stake

Active numbers in this hold cycle:

0337 double
FamilyTypeCurrent StatusSelection Reason
0337 double Hold Draw 10 of 10 pairs after 00: fall next draw or draw after (from 0890 Evening 2026-09-04) · 7 pairs frequently with 5, 2, 0, 1 (from 3751 Midday 2026-09-04) [RB9 Root 4 Aligned] · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 0937)
⚡ STRATEGY EFFICIENCY & CAPITAL OPTIMIZATION TERMINAL Efficiency Grade: F Archetype: PRECISION CHASER
Ticket Waste Index: 100%

Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.

Dimension / Metric Standard Baseline ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized Variance & Capital Lift
Total Plays Placed 500 450 -10.0% wagers eliminated
Winning Hits Captured 0 0 100% hits retained
Hit Rate Efficiency 0.00% 0.00% +0.00%
Capital Invested $125.00 $150.00 +$12.50 saved
Net Profit / Loss -$125.00 -$150.00 -$25.00 turnaround
Return on Investment (ROI) -100.0% -100.0% +0.0% ROI Lift
🛡️ Tailored Optimization Rules Applied to this Model
Top-K Concentration: Capped at top lines to eliminate dilution
Anti-Repeat Shield: 15-draw trailing blackout (< 0.08% repeat rate)
Wave Sizing & Trough Protection: $0.50 Wave 1 / $0.00 Dead Zone (Draws 4–6)
Draw 10 Zero Exposure Mandate: 🛑 $0.00 Sit Out on Step 10 (Terminal Hard-Stop)

📊 Key performance metrics (3 years walk-forward)

Multi-Year Consistency Window

Evaluated across 2,194 drawings (2023-09-09 → 2026-09-09). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-441 (-70.2% ROI across 2,516 all-time draws).

Net Profit -$350
Return on Investment -65.1%
Hit Rate 0.09%
Max Drawdown -$-350
Active Drawings 2,194
Total Plays Placed 2,150
Total Winning Hits 2
Gross Revenue $187.5
💰 Audited Prize Payouts & Hits by Pattern Kind Dynamic Accounting: Doubles pay 2× ($187.50) · Triples pay 6× ($562.50)
distinct Base ($93.75)
2 hits
+$187.5

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Total Staked (Cost) $537.5
Total Payout (Gross) $187.5
Net Profit / Loss -$350
Final Bankroll $150
Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-350.00. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-525.
🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M 3M 6M 1Y ★ 2Y 3Y All Time Profitable Months
-$4.5
-100.0% ROI
-$35.5
-100.0% ROI
-$81
-100.0% ROI
-$172
-100.0% ROI
-$260.75
-73.6% ROI
-$350
-65.1% ROI
-$441.5
-70.2% ROI
0 / 12

📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

YearCostGrossNet ProfitHitsROI
2023 $137.5 $0 -$137.5 0 -100.0%
2024 $183 $93.75 -$89.25 1 -48.8%
2025 $182.5 $93.75 -$88.75 1 -48.6%
2026 $126 $0 -$126 0 -100.0%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

23-10 $-16
23-11 $-15
23-12 $-16
24-01 $-16
24-02 $-15
24-03 $-16
24-04 $-15
24-05 $-16
24-06 $79
24-07 $-16
24-08 $-16
24-09 $-15
24-10 $-16
24-11 $-15
24-12 $-16
25-01 $78
25-02 $-14
25-03 $-16
25-04 $-15
25-05 $-16
25-06 $-15
25-07 $-16
25-08 $-16
25-09 $-15
25-10 $-16
25-11 $-15
25-12 $-16
26-01 $-16
26-02 $-14
26-03 $-16
26-04 $-15
26-05 $-16
26-06 $-15
26-07 $-16
26-08 $-16
26-09 $-5

🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)

2 Documented Drops in Backtest

Distribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.

Average Draw to Drop
Draw 6.5
Out of 10 max steps
Early Strike Rate (Draws 1–3)
0.0%
0 of 2 drops
Peak Drop Draw
Draw 5
1 drops landed here
Stop-on-Drop Discipline
Early Exit
Terminates upon drop
Draw 1 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 2 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 3 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 4 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 5 ★ 1 drops (50.0%)
Draw 6 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 7 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 8 1 drops (50.0%)
Draw 9 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 10 0 drops (0.0%)

💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

0236 1 hits 1237 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 2)

DateDrawNumberFamilyPattern TypePayoutTrigger Reason
2025-01-11 Evening 2731 1237 distinct +$93.75 2 drawn in sets: 2&6, 5&2, 7&2 (from 7926 Midday 2025-01-09) · 7 pairs frequently with 5, 2, 0, 1 (from 7926 Midday 2025-01-09) [RB9 Root 4 Aligned] · Hold Draw 5 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 7926)
2024-06-08 Midday 0623 0236 distinct +$93.75 2 drawn in sets: 2&6, 5&2, 7&2 (from 9223 Midday 2024-06-04) · 23 brings 23 and 69 complements (from 9223 Midday 2024-06-04) [RB9 Root 2 Aligned] · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 9223)