Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report

Pickstics Empirical Follower (10-Draw Hold - Top 1)

Dynamic Walk-Forward 681 total plays 0.9 families/draw

Plays the #1 historical follower line for up to 10 consecutive drawings straight across all draw times, stopping immediately once a drop occurs to lock in net profit.

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Plays the #1 historical follower line for up to 10 consecutive drawings straight across all draw times, stopping immediately once a drop occurs to lock in net profit.

Execution & Cost Profile

  • Play Sizing: Averages 0.9 boxed families per drawing.
  • Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.23 (0.9 × $0.25).
  • Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
  • Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Evening · 09/06/2026

⚡ ACTIVE HOLD CYCLE Hold Draw 10 of 10
🛑 10-DRAW CUT-OFF · $0.00 SIT OUT / DO NOT PLAY
Hold Progress Rail: Option A · Velocity Front-Loaded (Draw 10 / 10)
1 ✓ Past
2 ✓ Past
3 ✓ Past
4 ✓ Past
5 ✓ Past
6 ✓ Past
7 ✓ Past
8 ✓ Past
9 ✓ Past
10 🛑 SIT OUT
Trigger Drawing
#198
Evening (2026-09-01)
Cumulative Stake Invested
$2.50
$0.25/draw × 10 draws
Payout if Dropped Now
$37.50
Stops immediately on drop
Net Profit if Dropped Now
+$35.00
Gross payout minus cumulative stake

Active numbers in this hold cycle:

067 distinct
FamilyTypeCurrent StatusSelection Reason
067 distinct Hold Draw 10 of 10 Book followed-by: 397 -> 067 · followed number 947 1/5x within 10 draws · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 198)
⚡ STRATEGY EFFICIENCY & CAPITAL OPTIMIZATION TERMINAL Efficiency Grade: F Archetype: PRECISION CHASER
Ticket Waste Index: 102.2%

Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.

Dimension / Metric Standard Baseline ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized Variance & Capital Lift
Total Plays Placed 500 415 -17.0% wagers eliminated
Winning Hits Captured 2 1 50.0% hits retained
Hit Rate Efficiency 0.40% 0.24% -0.16%
Capital Invested $125.00 $139.50 +$21.25 saved
Net Profit / Loss -$50.00 -$102.00 -$52.00 turnaround
Return on Investment (ROI) -40.0% -73.1% -33.1% ROI Lift
🛡️ Tailored Optimization Rules Applied to this Model
Top-K Concentration: Capped at top lines to eliminate dilution
Anti-Repeat Shield: 15-draw trailing blackout (< 0.08% repeat rate)
Wave Sizing & Trough Protection: $0.50 Wave 1 / $0.00 Dead Zone (Draws 4–6)
Draw 10 Zero Exposure Mandate: 🛑 $0.00 Sit Out on Step 10 (Terminal Hard-Stop)

📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)

★ Sweet Spot Window

Evaluated across 731 drawings (2025-09-06 → 2026-09-06). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-215 (-34.2% ROI across 2,509 all-time draws).

Net Profit -$20.25
Return on Investment -11.9%
Hit Rate 0.59%
Max Drawdown -$-106
Active Drawings 731
Total Plays Placed 681
Total Winning Hits 4
Gross Revenue $150
💰 Audited Prize Payouts & Hits by Pattern Kind Dynamic Accounting: Doubles pay 2× ($75.00) · Triples pay 6× ($225.00)
distinct Base ($37.50)
4 hits
+$150

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Total Staked (Cost) $170.25
Total Payout (Gross) $150
Net Profit / Loss -$20.25
Final Bankroll $479.75
Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-106.00. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-159.
🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M 3M 6M 1Y ★ 2Y 3Y All Time Profitable Months
+$34.75
1263.6% ROI
+$41.25
122.2% ROI
-$4.25
-5.4% ROI
-$20.25
-11.9% ROI
-$165.25
-46.8% ROI
-$198.25
-37.0% ROI
-$214.75
-34.2% ROI
4 / 12

📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

YearCostGrossNet ProfitHitsROI
2023 $137.5 $150 +$12.5 4 9.1%
2024 $183 $112.5 -$70.5 3 -38.5%
2025 $182.5 $75 -$107.5 2 -58.9%
2026 $124.25 $75 -$49.25 2 -39.6%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

25-10 $-16
25-11 $23
25-12 $22
26-01 $-16
26-02 $-14
26-03 $-16
26-04 $-15
26-05 $-16
26-06 $-15
26-07 $-16
26-08 $22
26-09 $35

🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)

4 Documented Drops in Backtest

Distribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.

Average Draw to Drop
Draw 4.0
Out of 10 max steps
Early Strike Rate (Draws 1–3)
25.0%
1 of 4 drops
Peak Drop Draw
Draw 1
1 drops landed here
Stop-on-Drop Discipline
Early Exit
Terminates upon drop
Draw 1 ★ 1 drops (25.0%)
Draw 2 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 3 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 4 1 drops (25.0%)
Draw 5 1 drops (25.0%)
Draw 6 1 drops (25.0%)
Draw 7 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 8 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 9 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 10 0 drops (0.0%)

💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

039 1 hits 048 1 hits 189 1 hits 268 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 4)

DateDrawNumberFamilyPattern TypePayoutTrigger Reason
2026-09-01 Evening 198 189 distinct +$37.50 Book followed-by: 977 -> 891 · followed family 038 1/16x within 10 draws · Hold Draw 6 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 977)
2026-08-24 Evening 286 268 distinct +$37.50 followed family 567 3/13x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 756 -> 268 · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 756)
2025-12-22 Midday 840 048 distinct +$37.50 followed number 574 1/3x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 574 -> 840 · Hold Draw 4 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 574)
2025-11-10 Midday 390 039 distinct +$37.50 followed family 249 1/16x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 924 -> 093 · Hold Draw 5 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 924)