Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 4,092 total plays 2.8 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.8 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.70 (2.8 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/08/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3337 | triple | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (2316 skips, z=+1.65)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 8049) |
| 0025 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (1246 skips, z=+0.19)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 8049) |
| 1667 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 2, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (680 skips, z=+1.28)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 8049) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 903 | -39.8% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 2 | 1 | 50.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.13% | 0.11% | -0.02% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $302.25 | +$149.25 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | -$93.75 | -$114.75 | -$21.00 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | -25.0% | -38.0% | -13.0% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)
Evaluated across 1,464 drawings (2025-09-06 → 2026-09-06). Multi-year consistency benchmark: +$3,881 (99.5% ROI across 5,200 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$18
-100.0% ROI |
-$110.25
-54.0% ROI |
-$102
-21.4% ROI |
-$273
-26.7% ROI |
+$132
6.2% ROI |
+$252.75
7.9% ROI |
+$3,881.25
99.5% ROI |
5 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $960 | $4,781.25 | +$3,821.25 | 25 | 398.0% |
| 2024 | $1,098 | $843.75 | -$254.25 | 7 | -23.2% |
| 2025 | $1,095 | $1,687.5 | +$592.5 | 13 | 54.1% |
| 2026 | $747 | $468.75 | -$278.25 | 4 | -37.2% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
7 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 7)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 7pm | 2586 | 2568 | distinct | +$93.75 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (802 skips, z=+-2.04)) · Hold Draw 5 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 6150) |
| 2026-06-29 | 4pm | 9249 | 2499 | double 2x Double | +$187.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 6, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (1534 skips, z=+0.05)) · Hold Draw 5 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 0044) |
| 2026-04-09 | 1pm | 0891 | 0189 | distinct | +$93.75 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 9, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (270 skips, z=+-0.9)) · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 4879) |
| 2026-01-29 | 7pm | 1908 | 0189 | distinct | +$93.75 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 9, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (339 skips, z=+-0.69)) · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 5454) |
| 2025-10-19 | 7pm | 3613 | 1336 | double 2x Double | +$187.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, LLN Deficit (z=+1.14)) · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 5708) |
| 2025-10-17 | 10pm | 5708 | 0578 | distinct | +$93.75 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 2, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (682 skips, z=+-1.8)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 2896) |
| 2025-09-12 | 10pm | 8060 | 0068 | double 2x Double | +$187.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 5, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (800 skips, z=+-0.64)) · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 0219) |