Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 483 total plays 2.6 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.6 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.65 (2.6 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/12/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44668 | double/double | Hold Draw 5 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 1, Date Anchor 8, Shield Safe, Overdue (380 skips, z=+-1.33), ⚡ Echo Pair (74764)) · Hold Draw 5 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 10392) |
| 44678 | double | Hold Draw 5 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Date Anchor 8, Shield Safe, Overdue (1314 skips, z=+-0.33), ⚡ Echo Pair (74764)) · Hold Draw 5 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 10392) |
| 44667 | double/double | Hold Draw 5 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Date Root 9, Shield Safe, Overdue (1278 skips, z=+-0.33), ⚡ Echo Pair (74764)) · Hold Draw 5 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 10392) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: High Efficiency: Strong ROI lift with significant ticket cost reduction.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 528 | -64.8% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 1 | 1 | 100.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.07% | 0.19% | +0.12% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $174.75 | +$243.00 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | +$0.00 | +$200.25 | +$200.25 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | 0.0% | 114.6% | +114.6% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (6 months walk-forward)
Evaluated across 187 drawings (2026-03-13 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-313 (-35.7% ROI across 1,167 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$6
-100.0% ROI |
-$52.5
-100.0% ROI |
-$120.75
-100.0% ROI |
+$117.75
45.8% ROI |
-$156
-29.4% ROI |
-$430.5
-53.4% ROI |
-$312.75
-35.7% ROI |
1 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $138.75 | $187.5 | +$48.75 | 1 | 35.1% |
| 2024 | $274.5 | $0 | -$274.5 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 2025 | $273.75 | $375 | +$101.25 | 1 | 37.0% |
| 2026 | $188.25 | $0 | -$188.25 | 0 | -100.0% |