Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 1,026 total plays 2.8 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.8 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.70 (2.8 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/08/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 477 | double | Hold Draw 7 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 9, Cici Master Quad (4-9-7-1), Shield Safe, LLN Deficit (z=+3.74), ⚡ Mirror Echo (323)) · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 683) |
| 778 | double | Hold Draw 7 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, LLN Deficit (z=+2.48), ⚡ Mirror Echo (323)) · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 683) |
| 235 | distinct | Hold Draw 7 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 1, Date Harmony, Shield Safe, Overdue (123 skips), ⚡ Echo Pair (323)) · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 683) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: High Efficiency: Strong ROI lift with significant ticket cost reduction.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 51 | -96.6% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 7 | 2 | 28.6% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.47% | 3.92% | +3.45% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $17.25 | +$362.25 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | +$112.50 | +$132.75 | +$20.25 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | 30.0% | 769.6% | +739.6% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)
Evaluated across 366 drawings (2025-09-07 → 2026-09-07). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-257 (-5.8% ROI across 5,893 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$5.25
-100.0% ROI |
-$51.75
-100.0% ROI |
+$30
25.0% ROI |
-$31.5
-12.3% ROI |
-$117.75
-22.2% ROI |
-$167.25
-20.8% ROI |
-$257.25
-5.8% ROI |
3 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $138 | $187.5 | +$49.5 | 3 | 35.9% |
| 2011 | $270.75 | $300 | +$29.25 | 5 | 10.8% |
| 2012 | $273 | $337.5 | +$64.5 | 7 | 23.6% |
| 2013 | $273 | $225 | -$48 | 5 | -17.6% |
| 2014 | $273.75 | $487.5 | +$213.75 | 10 | 78.1% |
| 2015 | $273 | $450 | +$177 | 9 | 64.8% |
| 2016 | $274.5 | $112.5 | -$162 | 3 | -59.0% |
| 2017 | $273.75 | $150 | -$123.75 | 2 | -45.2% |
| 2018 | $273.75 | $187.5 | -$86.25 | 3 | -31.5% |
| 2019 | $273.75 | $375 | +$101.25 | 6 | 37.0% |
| 2020 | $274.5 | $187.5 | -$87 | 3 | -31.7% |
| 2021 | $273.75 | $150 | -$123.75 | 3 | -45.2% |
| 2022 | $273.75 | $187.5 | -$86.25 | 3 | -31.5% |
| 2023 | $273.75 | $262.5 | -$11.25 | 4 | -4.1% |
| 2024 | $274.5 | $187.5 | -$87 | 3 | -31.7% |
| 2025 | $273.75 | $150 | -$123.75 | 2 | -45.2% |
| 2026 | $187.5 | $225 | +$37.5 | 3 | 20.0% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
3 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 3)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Midday | 161 | 116 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 8, Cici Master Quad (1-6-4-8), Shield Safe, Overdue (368 skips, z=+3.14)) · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 827) |
| 2026-04-13 | Midday | 011 | 011 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 2, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (589 skips, z=+4.05)) · Hold Draw 9 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 165) |
| 2026-03-26 | Midday | 331 | 133 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Master Quad (8-3-1-5), Shield Safe, LLN Deficit (z=+1.48), ⚡ Mirror Echo (682)) · Hold Draw 2 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 957) |